S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 1?

"S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 1?" is a prediction market on predi-cate with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "$715" at 99%, followed by "$730" at 99%. Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 99¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 1?" has generated $38K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jun 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the predi-cate community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 1?", browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade". If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 1?" is "$715" at 99%, meaning the market assigns a 99% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "$730" at 99%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 1?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "S&P 500 (SPY) closes above ___ on July 1?". The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.